Skip to main content

Beyond Blue Sky 2025 - Chapter 7 - Technology

 The Need for Technology to Fill the Gap

Examining the population reduction issue is contentious and probably unrealistic.  It is not even entirely clear whether or not it would be successful, since selecting the 'victims' would be a very difficult choice to make.  As history has shown, wars, pandemics, and other social ills would not kill in sufficient numbers to 'solve' the climate crisis.  A global war followed by a worldwide pandemic on a scale of the Black Death might approximate, but the randomness of those affected could severely disrupt the functioning of civilisation and might even propel us into a new Dark Age where technologies are abandoned.  We cannot afford for this to happen.

A more humane approach to population numbers is to assume that the central UN projections of 0% p.a. for the West and 0.8% p.a. for the ROW remain unassailable, although by 2050 the total population figure could be 1bn less as a result of education and proper family planning measures.  We must, therefore, revisit the annual decarbonization (including energy efficiency) needed, given a growing population and average economic real growth rates.

The United Kingdom

In the UK, with a population growth of 0.8% p.a, an annual full decarbonization rate (including energy efficiency) of 5.8% sustained over the period 2020-2050 is required (Table 7.1).  There is some optimism here since the increased decommissioning of coal-fired power stations in 2015 partly facilitated this.  A move to renewables and nuclear power would further accelerate this, and once solar power reaches parity with coal in terms of cost, decarbonization rates could soar.

Table 7.1 Technology-focused interventions, over the period 2020-2050, to achieve CO2 emission reductions to meet the 1.5 °C target, with a further 60% reduction by 2050 in the UK.

Variable    CO2        Population        GDP/Capita        Energy/GDP        CO2/Energy

UK            -3%        +0.8%                +2%                    -2%                     -3.8%

The United States of America

In the USA, the decarbonization rates (including energy efficiency) needed are much higher and at 12% are more than double those of the UK.  This is because the USA delayed decarbonizing its economy (compared to the 1990 base), and also, its population has grown in the meantime.  Further population growth is projected if the Pew Centre's estimates for natural growth and immigration are considered, although Presidential intervention may change this, as we have seen with recent Decrees from President Trump.  Population growth has therefore not been factored into Table 7.2, but any growth would increase the required decarbonization totals.

Table 7.2 Technology-focused interventions, over the period 2020-2050, to achieve CO2 emission reductions to meet the 1.5 °C target, with a further 95% reduction by 2050 in the USA.

Variable    CO2        Population        GDP/Capita        Energy/GDP        CO2/Energy

USA          -10%        +0%                +2%                    -2%                     -10%

The Rest of The World

For the ROW (non-Western countries), decarbonization (including energy efficiency) rates would need to be realized at 7.3% from 2020 onwards, allowing for 0.8% population growth and 2.5% real economic growth (Table 7.3).  This would allow living standards to approach those of the West.

Table 7.3 Technology-focused interventions, over the period 2020-2050, to achieve CO2 emission reductions to meet the 1.5 °C target, with a further 70% reduction by 2050 in the ROW.

Variable    CO2        Population        GDP/Capita        Energy/GDP        CO2/Energy

UK            -4%        +0.8%                +2.5%                 -2.5%                     -4.8%

Can These High Rates Be Achieved?

All these rates are very high indeed and exceed both France's move to nuclear energy and the collapse of heavy industry in the former USSR.  To realise them will require nothing less than a new Industrial Revolution over the next 25 years and a total commitment to economic decarbonization.  Global co-operation is an imperative, together with technology transfer to obviate isolationism.  And, coupled with new technology, we must effect behavioural change - not forgetting that we must also consume less and strive for economic growth of the right kind.

The 2018 IPCC report stated that it is 66% likely that the 1.5 °C target put forward in Paris in 2015 lies beyond our capabilities.  However, this should not be interpreted as meaning we should not try!  These targets will only get harder the longer we delay.  Indeed, the above percentages are based on 2020 start dates and, now, in 2025, are no doubt higher.  The time for action is NOW!








Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Beyond Blue Sky 2025 - Chapter 3b - Life!

Live life abundantly!  (John 10:10). What To Do About Climate Change? The fundamental problem is that carbon emissions are so inexorably linked to economic activity (IT, housing, agriculture, manufacturing, and transport) that reducing them and operating a 'green' economy is no small task.  Thinking negatively, economy derailment could be the solution - although to be positive the focus should be a major change along the continuum of slowing, stabilizing, and reducing CO2 emissions within a fully functioning economy, which runs counter to many environmentalists' thinking.  However, we definitely need a new economy based on a clean-energy future. We are, truly, in a Climate Emergency.  As outlined throughout, unless bold action is taken to change the economic system while carbon budgets allow, we may well be facing a long drawn-out equivalent of the sudden extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago - and certainly the worst set of circumstances since The Flood i...
Post a Comment
Read more

Beyond Blue Sky 2025 - Chapter 2b

Climate Sensitivity Quantifying temperature increase in relation to CO2 volume depends on 'climate sensitivity'.  Commonly, this refers to temperature increase resulting from CO2 doubling since the pre-industrial times atmospheric baseline of 280ppm to approx. 550ppm.  The IPCC models predict a range of 2C to 4.5C above 1900, with a best estimate of 3C.  As of June 2024, the world is currently at 427ppm and 1.55C above 1900. Although both temperature and atmosphere water vapor will continue to increase, specific impacts will depend on geographical location.  For example, higher latitudes together with mid-continental locations are expected to warm sooner and faster.  Also, high rainfall areas should get wetter contrasting drier drought-prone regions.  Much modeling is in progress to predict these regional impacts in greater detail, although we mustn't also forget that it is ultimately God who sends the rains.  The challenge of climate change, particula...
Post a Comment
Read more

Beyond Blue Sky 2025 - Chapter 3a

Dangerous Climate Change Based on the best available scientific evidence, it is clear that increases in CO2, and other greenhouse gases in CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent), which constitute F in the Kaya Identity (see earlier), result in temperature elevation.  The relationship between the two is known as climate sensitivity.  It is accepted by most scientists that a CO2 doubling (from pre-industrial 280ppm to 550ppm) will probably lead to a roughly 3C temperature rise.  The IPCC calculated a range of 1.5C and 4.5C depending on the emission scenario.  Unfortunately, this is far from exact since fossil records estimate that climate sensitivity could be as high as 6C (Hansen). Are temperature increases dangerous? The overriding consensus is a resounding yes.  There is no question that biomes, including pathogenic species, would survive and even proliferate.  The concern is that widespread ecosystem collapse would occur specifically concerning biomes on which ...
Post a Comment
Read more