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Beyond Blue Sky 2025 - Chapter 8 - Drawdown

 Technology and Innovation

Technology, as we have seen, has played a critical role in shaping the modern world, particularly in the last 250 years.  It has been central to our enjoying continued economic growth over that period; raising enormously our standards of living.  We do, however, require continued innovation to help solve the climate crisis.  Not only do we need to deploy existing technologies but also we need to invent new ones.

It is important, therefore, to ensure that technology advancement continues.  We cannot allow the economy to stagnate.  We need continued incentives for entrepreneurs to innovate and bring products to market.

The view now is that technology and innovation are realised within systems where there is also an active government intervention. They cannot be left to markets alone although markets remain a powerful force. Since we need to accelerate the process of innovation, we should focus our resources to create such an environment.

The caveat remains that technology will not provide the complete answer.  It is unreasonable to expect that the rate of decarbonization required will be achieved through entirely technical solutions.  Social innovation/change/upheaval will be required also, which accompanies, typically, all technological change.

Types of 'Systems Thinking' Required

As established in Chapter 4, by mid-century at the latest, the whole economy must be net-zero-carbon.  This means that, by now, corporates and innovative start-ups will have to be 'ahead of the curve' and effectively carbon neutral.  This is now upon us, and if we seek examples of companies truly engaged today, few can be found.  This is not a reason to be despondent.  The challenge is to use our remaining carbon budget in ways that allow us to scale up renewable and nuclear energy so that businesses can be truly carbon neutral in the future.

Finally, we need to think of technology in broad terms, with CO2 reduction the paramount goal. To this end, a 2017 study (Drawdown, The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming, ed Paul Hawken), in the USA, identified 80 actionable technologies that, collectively, facilitate carbon neutrality by 2050.  I would urge readers to check out its website and support the initiative as it is a living process.  Here is a brief overview of the TOP 15 CO2 saving solutions.

Drawdown Top 15

1.    Refrigerant Management - replacing 700 million AC units by 2030

2.    Wind Turbines

3.    Reduced Food Waste - Currently, one-third of the food produced is not consumed

4.    Plant-Rich Diet - according to WHO, only 10-15% of daily calories need to come from protein

5.    Tropical Forests - restore 864 million acres before 2030

6.    Education, specifically for girls, to empower them to have smaller families.  Education is also beneficial in its own right.

7.    Family Planning - without healthcare and proper family planning, the world population could be 1bn higher by 2050.

8.    Solar Farms - set to become the least expensive energy in the world, although it would need back-up power.

9.     Silvopasture - when cattle are grazed under a canopy of trees

10.    Rooftop Solar

11.    Regenerative Agriculture - restoring degraded land and soil carbon

12.     Temperate Forests

13.     Peatlands - carbon sinks when wet, but if disrupted, then carbon emitters.  Rewetting, then, must be considered

14.    Tropical Staple Trees

15.    Afforestation - on both micro- and macroscales

Of the 15 possibilities above, it is surprising that few 'technology' solutions are considered because, although they make economic sense, they actually save comparatively little in CO2 terms.  Yet options such as geothermal, nuclear, EVs, mass transit, LED lighting, heat pumps etc, must all be considered, and the authors stressed that efforts should be made with all options to achieve successfully what they term 'Drawdown' by 2050.

We need all stakeholders - corporates, governments, institutions, and the wider public alike to rally behind this agenda if it is to succeed.  We know what to do - now we just need the will to do it!

Conclusion

The final point to note is that innovation is non-linear, systemic, and often unpredictable.  It cannot be said with any certainty what shape companies and organisations will be in 5 years from now, let alone 2050.  Technology is path dependent - it depends on choices made in the past, and it is this path which we now need to change by altering land-use, scaling-up renewables, and energy-efficient solutions now!

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