It is inherently difficult to predict what the future will hold, but sociologists such as Urry (Climate Change & Society, 2011, Polity Books, Cambridge) attempted to define different scenarios:
- Utopia of the sustainable society - he called this unrealistic
- Extrapolating from existing societies, he believed these lacked vision
- Scenario building - accepting that there is no single best future
Scenario-building examples that Urry advanced in his book include:
- Perpetual consumerism (problem with exponential growth)
- Local sustainability (requires population reduction and a global economic crisis)
- Regional warlordism (a retreat from globalisation). The Global South would suffer.
- Low-carbon, digital networks (techno-future). Urry preferred this scenario.
In concluding, Urry noted that, without planning, none of the above scenarios were certain since each entailed vulnerabilities and risks to human life..
Each scenario must be treated with a healthy degree of scepticism. None of us can predict entirely the future, and certainly not the next 25 years. It is clear, however, that as a result of the threat of climate change, many profound changes are necessary, and some of these have been highlighted here.
What Is Certain
What is certain is that the high-carbon life of the 20th Century is coming to an end, and in the 21st Century, we must all, to some degree, consider the future. What we do or don't do in the next 25 years will determine the sustainability of the planet for the rest of the 21st Century and beyond, notwithstanding the Return of Jesus Christ.
Yet even this timescale belittles the fact that the next 3-5 years are critical in determining our futures, given that, to get us on the 'right path', we very much need to make sensible choices in the coming years.
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